We're Running Out Of Stuff...

By Mihir Mathur

We have always known that our time on this planet is limited. If we ever survive all the wars, diseases, natural disasters, and everything else that is conspiring to kill us, our end might come from simply running out of resources. But that is in the future, right? They told us that we might run out of oil and gas, but we are now producing more than ever. That must mean that though we may run out eventually, it's not going to happen any time soon, right? Right?

Not quite. Let's start with...

CHIPS

We're running out of chips. It should come as no surprise really. I wouldn't put it past them pump the bags with more air than chips with each passing day. Pretty soon, they'll be selling us bagged air containing nothing but the fragrance of fried potatoes and condiments.

I kid, of course. We're not really running out of chips. Those chips are just a result of shrinkflation. No, what I am talking about is computer chips.

In fact, we are not running out of computer chips, we have run out of computer chips. Ever since mid-2019, the world is undergoing a silicon shortage the likes of which we have never seen before. This was caused by a number of things, all of which, in accordance with Murphy's Law, occurred at once.

The first thing to go wrong was the increase in adoption of 5G. Whenever a new generation arrives and starts getting cheaper, more and more people start buying these more advanced devices. Now, older electronics, like old computers and phones, are almost completely unrecyclable. This means that the landfills fill up with discarded phones, and silicon fabrication plants must now churn out more chips - microprocessors, specifically - that will go into the brand spanking new devices.

And then the Corona hit. Basically everybody was forced indoors. Whereas a regular household had a dumpy old computer that barely got used, now everyone needed one. Dad, and often mom as well, needed computers for work, little Susie and Timmy need their own computers for school, perhaps an internet service upgrade to handle all that bandwidth. Multiply that by millions, and add the fact that many of the processor fabrication plants shut down in the downturn of the economy due to lockdowns, and you have an acute shortage in your hands.

As a result of that, prices of anything that has a microprocessor has gone up significantly. And that includes almost everything - computers, phones, appliances, cars, game consoles and so on. The prediction for how long this shortage would last currently stands at 2023.

However, this might not be a problem for long, because we are also running out of...

POWER

This should come as no surprise to no one. Power has forever been a scarce resource ever since we can remember. We never have enough power to keep up with all the technological advancements, and the growing number of people that need power.

There is another issues as well. Our processors have gotten more powerful, able to carry out more instructions in a shorter amount of time making use of smaller and smaller transistors on their dye. However, they are also using more power than ever. Our daily driven software have followed suit, and have become more resource intensive and sub-optimized.

The result, therefore, is that at the rate we're going, we will not have enough energy to make full use of the processing power we have on our hands.

It might not be a problem, though, because, we are also running out of...

SAND

Wait, that can't be right, right? How can we be running out of sand? It's everywhere! On beaches, deserts, and the entirety of the ocean floors. The earth is covered with this stuff!

Yes, while it is present in abundance on earth, we are still using 50 billion tonnes of sand a year. Not only there is no way to do it sustainably, we also can't just pick up sand from anywhere. Desert sand doesn't cut it - it can't be used for construction, it can't be refined to make silicon, and can't be used for any practical industrial process.

Instead, we are drudging rivers, digging up ocean floors, and tearing out forests and generally making a mess of things. It is so bad, in fact, that criminal cartels have moved in on it, creating a black market that has often turned lethal.

The world is in a precarious state right now. Our relentless consumerism has already given us a glimpse to the troubles that our future might hold. Even things that we thought we had an abundance of are now scarce. If this is not the wakeup call that we need to be mindful of our consumption, then we are doomed to squeeze our planet dry before long.

By Mihir Mathur